{"id":2990,"date":"2019-06-26T05:11:08","date_gmt":"2019-06-26T11:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/?p=2990"},"modified":"2026-02-24T15:03:53","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T22:03:53","slug":"atoms-for-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/26\/atoms-for-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Atoms for Peace"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I hadn&#8217;t intended to post more than one or two entries per month here, but stuff keeps coming over the transom. Bear with me. This is a first look at the embrace of nuclear by environmentalists and climate scientists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Nuclear Option<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in November I sent my wife <a href=\"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/author\/andreacarney\/\">Andrea Carney<\/a> yet another TED Talk. By chance I would catch parts of these talks on public radio during my drive home from meetings. If something interested me I&#8217;d pull up the talk on YouTube. Michael Shellenberger&#8217;s topic, &#8220;Why I changed my mind about nuclear power,&#8221; struck me because I&#8217;d recently tracked down a hazily-remembered segment regarding nuclear power from years ago on <em>Democracy Now!<\/em> that featured columnist and environmentalist (and near-vegan) George Monbiot\u00a0(I kept spelling his name wrong).<span id='easy-footnote-1-2990' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/26\/atoms-for-peace\/#easy-footnote-bottom-1-2990' title='Monbiot among others &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.democracynow.org\/2018\/11\/29\/george_monbiot_ending_meat_dairy_consumption&quot;&gt;debunked&lt;\/a&gt; the &amp;#8220;desert into meadow&amp;#8221; notion contained in the TED Talk I wrote of in my &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/17\/survives-of-the-rich-and-famous\/#survivor&quot;&gt;last post&lt;\/a&gt;.'><sup>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span> And I&#8217;d forgotten it was a debate\u2014with anti-nuclear (weapons and power) champion Helen Caldicott, who was considered a 20th century hero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his March 30, 2011 debate with Caldicott, Monbiot expressed sympathy for the people of Fukushima, who had experienced an earthquake-caused tsunami as well as the ensuing nuclear power plant failure. But he hoped the disaster wouldn&#8217;t cause a global retreat from nuclear and a return to coal:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">In China alone, last year, 2,300 people were killed in industrial accidents to do with coal mining; purely by coal mining accidents, 2,300 killed. That\u2019s six people a day. That means that in one week, the official death toll from coal in China is greater than the official death toll from Chernobyl in 25 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"George Monbiot vs. Dr. Helen Caldicott: A Debate on the Future of Nuclear Energy. Part 1 of 2\" width=\"525\" height=\"394\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/8p0d05M5JpY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>So I pricked up my ears when I heard self-described &#8220;atomic humanist&#8221;&nbsp;Michael Shellenberger, in his TED Talk, echoing Monbiot&#8217;s line. Happily having been raised by Mennonite hippies, Shellenberger explains the evolution of his thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Why I changed my mind about nuclear power | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxBerlin\" width=\"525\" height=\"295\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ciStnd9Y2ak?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Last November when I sent the talk to Andrea, she and I had a brief discussion about the proposition that nuclear power\u2014written off as too expensive by U.S. naysayers\u2014could be a better buffer in climate mitigation. Andrea wasn&#8217;t buying it. I&#8217;m more open, but I was bugged by&nbsp;Monbiot&#8217;s complete sidestepping of Caldicott&#8217;s question about nuclear waste. Shellenberger discusses it by saying that nuclear waste is the only energy byproduct that is &#8220;safely contained.&#8221; And I remember talking with a &#8220;cousin&#8221; at a surname organization gathering who told me about how nuclear material had the capacity to be more efficiently harnessed; a comment on the Shellenberger <a href=\"http:\/\/environmentalprogress.org\/big-news\/2017\/11\/21\/why-i-changed-my-mind-about-nuclear-power-transcript-of-michael-shellenbergers-tedx-berlin-2017\">talk transcript<\/a> calls it &#8220;recycling.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While cleaning up my ever-replenished mound of personal recyclables last week I came across an MIT News item from March 8 this year that Andrea had printed for me, obviously remembering our conversation from four months before. &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/news.mit.edu\/2019\/chernobyl-manual-for-survival-book-0306\">Chernobyl: How bad was it?<\/a>&#8221; looks at a new book, <em>Manual for Survival: A Chernobyl Guide to the Future<\/em>, by&nbsp;Kate Brown, a historian at the same school. According to the article, Brown looked at Soviet documents that demonstrate a typical minimization of disasterdly outcomes. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2016\/sep\/10\/epa-head-wrong-911-air-safe-new-york-christine-todd-whitman\">Recall<\/a> Christine Todd Whitman telling New Yorkers the air was safe to breathe after 9\/11.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brown points to &#8220;hundreds of thousands&#8221; of deaths from Chernobyl, according to the book&#8217;s&nbsp;review by\u2014you guessed it\u2014Michael Shellenberger. It&#8217;s a bit of a fudge, however, because in the MIT piece Brown doesn&#8217;t even reach 200,000; her statistic of of 150,000 (from &#8220;some scientists&#8221;) is for Ukraine, having obtained no numbers for Belarus or western Russia. Whatever the stat, Shellenberger savages it and much more in his review. But he&#8217;s not writing this in, say, <em>Mother Jones<\/em>; he regularly writes for <em>Forbes<\/em>. And he has a business to promote as well\u2014Environmental Progress\u2014which in turn promotes nuclear. After that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/michaelshellenberger\/2019\/03\/13\/mit-historian-alleges-united-nations-scientific-cover-up-of-death-disease-toll-from-chernobyl\/#5778072c2626\">review<\/a> of Brown&#8217;s book, this month Shellenberger <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/michaelshellenberger\/2019\/06\/06\/why-hbos-chernobyl-gets-nuclear-so-wrong\/#512fddc7632f\">spilled his spleen<\/a> again on Chernobyl\u2014the miniseries. It&#8217;s almost comical the comebacks he has to the HBO serial&#8217;s sensationalization of a subject that was simply too dull\u2014a nurse&#8217;s hand turning red after touching a first responder being the most absurd example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two days before his review of Brown&#8217;s book (perhaps to have something handy to point to) Shellenberger <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/michaelshellenberger\/2019\/03\/11\/it-sounds-crazy-but-fukushima-chernobyl-and-three-mile-island-show-why-nuclear-is-inherently-safe\/#26cbd6c51688\">posted<\/a> &#8220;It Sounds Crazy, But Fukushima, Chernobyl, And Three Mile Island Show Why Nuclear Is Inherently Safe.&#8221; The title speaks for itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">I &#x2764;&#xfe0f; Bomb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In my very limited look at this I ran into the pro-nuclear power\/anti-nuclear weapons dichotomy. But one can&#8217;t necessarily apply that to Shellenberger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>World Information Service on Energy (WISE), an anti-nuclear power enterprise formed in 1978 and based in Amsterdam, tars Shellenberger with the power\/bomb connection; <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20240224083535\/https:\/\/wiseinternational.org\/nuclear-monitor\/865\/nuclear-lobbyist-michael-shellenberger-learns-love-bomb-goes-down-rabbit-hole\">see<\/a>, e.g., &#8220;Nuclear lobbyist Michael Shellenberger learns to love the bomb, goes down a rabbit hole.&#8221; A <a href=\"https:\/\/wiseinternational.org\/search\/node\/Shellenberger\">search<\/a> on the WISE website for Shellenberger returns results that include phrases like &#8220;misinformation,&#8221; &#8220;almost Trumpian in its incoherence,&#8221; &#8220;totally outdated,&#8221; and &#8220;shilling.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it&#8217;s no secret. Via &#8220;It Sounds Crazy\u2026&#8221; Shellenberger drops a bomb about the survivability of a World War II-era bomb drop:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Even relatively high doses of radiation cause far less harm than most people think. Careful, large, and long-term studies of survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki offer compelling demonstration. [reference in original]<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Cancer rates were just 10 percent higher among atomic blast survivors, most of whom never got cancer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And another, from his critique of HBO&#8217;s <em>Chernobyl<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">As for our exaggerated fears of nuclear weapons, the last 74 years have been the <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/war-and-peace\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/war-and-peace\">most peaceful<\/a> of the last 700. As the bomb has spread, deaths from wars and battles have declined by 95%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shellenberger is talking about deterrence, but\u00a0the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff have chimed in with the cheery conviction that use of nuclear weapons &#8220;could create conditions for decisive results and the restoration of strategic stability,&#8221; according to a June 11 document <em>The Guardian<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2019\/jun\/19\/nuclear-weapons-pentagon-us-military-doctrine\">points to<\/a>, which Andrea printed for me today.<span id='easy-footnote-2-2990' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/26\/atoms-for-peace\/#easy-footnote-bottom-2-2990' title='The &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20241201022043\/https:\/\/irp.fas.org\/doddir\/dod\/jp3_72.pdf&quot;&gt;document&lt;\/a&gt;, &lt;em&gt;Nuclear Operations&lt;\/em&gt;, was posted on the Pentagon website only to be quickly removed; it was downloaded by Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists.'><sup>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span> The price tag for our safety: $9.3 trillion, in present-day dollars, between 1940 and 1996 in the U.S. alone.<span id='easy-footnote-3-2990' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/26\/atoms-for-peace\/#easy-footnote-bottom-3-2990' title='The present-day figure of $9.3 trillion is &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.minneapolisfed.org\/about-us\/monetary-policy\/inflation-calculator\/consumer-price-index-1800-&quot;&gt;extrapolated&lt;\/a&gt; from the $5,821.0 billion figure &lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/estimated-minimum-incurred-costs-of-u-s-nuclear-weapons-programs-1940-1996\/&quot;&gt;published&lt;\/a&gt; by the Brookings Institution in its &lt;em&gt;Atomic Audit&lt;\/em&gt; report of August 1998.'><sup>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image wp-image-3033 size-full\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"525\" height=\"167\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/figure1.gif?resize=525%2C167&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nuclear Weapons pie chart image\" class=\"wp-image-3033\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><b>Estimated Minimum Incurred Costs of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Programs, 1940\u20131996.<\/b> This pie chart from the Brookings Instutution\u2019s 1998 report is comprehensive, assigning a $2.1 billion cost to Victims of the Bomb in 1996 dollars.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quibbling re Quietus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Aside from the implications discussed above, what I find disturbing as I read all of this is the casual casualty talk. It&nbsp;reminds me of when the Los Angeles light rail was being constructed in the Highland Park neighborhood. As I recall, the initial decision about whether or not to install crossing gates was based on balancing the cost of the gate and its maintenance against the cost of any deaths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disturbed or not, I asked Andrea if she could find documentation of nuclear power disaster deaths that contradicted Shellenberger&#8217;s own. In what Andrea gave me, only two articles&nbsp;stand out, both from <em>Newsweek<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/chernobyl-disaster-death-toll-estimates-radiation-cancer-1444029\">recent article<\/a>&nbsp;this month, regarding the effects of Chernobyl, closes with estimates of 4,000 to 9,000 eventual but speculative deaths (Chernobyl Forum) to an eventual 27,000 (Union of Concerned Scientists) to 200,000+ dead already (Greenpeace). (Of course, both Greenpeace and Shellenberger&#8217;s firm are advocacy enterprises, and so maximizing and minimizing, respectively, are in their interests.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No actual statistics appear in last month&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/chernobyl-disaster-first-responders-true-story-deaths-radiation-1415722\">article<\/a>, which revisits Nobel laureate Svetlana Alexievich&#8217;s 1997 <em>Voices from Chernobyl: The Oral History of a Nuclear Disaster<\/em> (originally titled <em>Chernobyl Prayer<\/em>). But in the same breath as Belarus&#8217;s &#8220;soaring mortality rates&#8221; the article mentions &#8220;depopulation\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">&#8220;We didn&#8217;t just lose a town, we lost our whole lives,&#8221; Nikolai Kalugin told Alexievich, who describes fleeing his home on the third day after the explosion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Depopulation is a concern of Shellenberger&#8217;s, voiced in his &#8220;It Sounds Crazy\u2026&#8221; where he declares that the evacuation of Fukushima was unnecessary and &#8220;witnessing the ridiculous and expensive bull-dozing of the region\u2019s fertile topsoil into green plastic bags&#8221; caused him to lose his cool. But cool he is when discussing Japanese survivors of two of the signal depopulations of the <em>20th<\/em> century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Splitting Atoms, Splitting Hairs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As I admitted above this is a limited look at a contentious topic. And for us in the United States it&#8217;s essentially a moot one as well. In the fall of 2013, four prominent climate scientists, including James Hansen, issued a statement in support of nuclear power. The letter was <a href=\"https:\/\/dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com\/2013\/11\/03\/to-those-influencing-environmental-policy-but-opposed-to-nuclear-power\/?_php=true&amp;_type=blogs&amp;ref=andrewcrevkin&amp;_r=0\">posted<\/a> at the <em>New York Times<\/em> by Andrew Revkin, and it received a reply by scientist and policy analyst Vaclav Smil, who points out that nuclear power essentially is dead in much of world\u2014exceptions being China, Russia, India, Iran, and North Korea. Iran&#8217;s nuclear program had its genesis in 1957 after the 1953 coup; it was a component of the U.S. Atoms for Peace program.<span id='easy-footnote-4-2990' class='easy-footnote-margin-adjust'><\/span><span class='easy-footnote'><a href='https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/2019\/06\/26\/atoms-for-peace\/#easy-footnote-bottom-4-2990' title='&lt;a href=&quot;https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/up-front\/2013\/12\/18\/sixty-years-of-atoms-for-peace-and-irans-nuclear-program\/&quot;&gt;See&lt;\/a&gt; &amp;#8220;Sixty Years of &amp;#8216;Atoms for Peace&amp;#8217; and Iran\u2019s Nuclear Program,&amp;#8221; again at the Brookings Institution.'><sup>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\"><em>Header image: incomplete<br>cooling tower&nbsp;by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/kenfagerdotcom\/9445455408\">Ken Fager<\/a><\/em><br><em>(<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-sa\/2.0\/\">CC BY-NC-SA 2.0<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Notes<\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A first look at the embrace of nuclear by environmentalists and climate scientists.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[468],"tags":[483,485,484,486,487,494,491,488,489,490,493,469,495,492],"class_list":["post-2990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-chernobyl","tag-coal","tag-fukushima","tag-george-monbiot","tag-helen-caldicott","tag-james-hansen","tag-kate-brown","tag-michael-shellenberger","tag-nuclear-power","tag-nuclear-weapons","tag-svetlana-alexievich","tag-ted-talk","tag-vaclav-smil","tag-world-information-service-on-energy"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/tower.jpg?fit=2047%2C1365&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paF2cn-Me","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2990"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2990\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10888,"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2990\/revisions\/10888"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/qualityofmercy.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}